Jump to content

Theme© by Fisana
 

Photo

The demise of the US dollar.


  • Please log in to reply
281 replies to this topic

#221 inside bush

inside bush

    Registered User

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts

Posted 22 May 2003 - 12:51 PM

Brendon
I am a bit closer to this theme. But understanding - not realy. If you add the different vew points of M3 you get realy confused.

One point of concern. 40% of US Ts held by foreighners. What if they get panicky. Just a guess. Yen/Euro + 20%. Not so good. And the real catastrophe - US with a deep whole.

A way to get rid of Bush. But at what price.

For US citizens who are not used in terms of international money flows. Just the consequence for all of us. More jobs gona be lost.
  • 0

#222 Brendon

Brendon

    Registered User

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13976 posts

Posted 22 May 2003 - 01:06 PM

Inside Bush,

Yeah, it will be tricky. But we are not due for another big melt down until (use your fingers Brendon! lol) about 2018-20.

I'm a firm believer in the 30 year cycle. You know when the archeologists were studying Egyptian heiroglyphics they noticed every thirty years the Egyptians went thru hard economic times. English land values for the past 1000 years show the same trend.
  • 0

#223 inside bush

inside bush

    Registered User

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 212 posts

Posted 22 May 2003 - 01:31 PM

The funy thing jour cycle theory as the older one was taken over in a way by Mr. Eliot. The Eliot waves. Hope the are both right. Some more lustful years. Hurray :D
  • 0

#224 Brendon

Brendon

    Registered User

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 13976 posts

Posted 22 May 2003 - 01:46 PM

None of the cycle theories deny periodical recessions during the longer cycle. And each time there is a recession everyone wonders if this one is going to be the biggie.

And then, just when all the pundits start to think: "Oh, this is just another downturn". Bang! The bottom falls out.

The late 1890's. The 1929 crash. Major recession in the early 60's. The 1987 crash.

Communist states have one every 75 years. But its a little more permanent.

Just kidding, boys! lol
  • 0

#225 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 10:57 AM

How did the authors of the 'strong-dollar policy' think it would end?


ADVERTISEMENT



2:54p ET Saturday, May 24, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Given the likely lack of market commentary and news over
the long holiday weekend in the United States, maybe the
exchange below will be a reasonable substitute.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Dear GATA:

Thank you for your continued work as a conduit for
the kind of information provided by the Insight
magazine article about the "strong-dollar policy."

It's reasonable to suppose that the formulators of the
"strong-dollar policy" hoped it could be sustained in
perpetuity. But they probably would have asked
themselves, "What would be the consequences if it
doesn't continue indefinitely?"

It's likely that the policy gurus felt that the downside
damage could be contained by the following
mechanism.

If the overseas appetite for dollars eventually faltered
because of a massive, unsustainable increase in
irredeemable debt, the debts would have been
accrued in highly valued dollars but would be paid
back -- if at all -- in cheaper dollars. The
purchasing-power spread between the inflow of
high-value dollars and the eventual outflow of
cheaper dollars constitutes a kind of systematic theft
from holders of the debt, including those around the
world foolish enough to believe that the United States
is sincere in its international friendships.

I can't believe that policy makers didn't consider this
possible result if and when demand for dollars came
to falter. They further must have hoped that the
importance of the United States as the consumer of last
resort would make it "too big to fail," thereby ensuring
that addiction to ever-increasing debt was not "our"
problem but was instead a problem for creditors.

-- D.O., England
  • 0

#226 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 10:57 AM

How did the authors of the 'strong-dollar policy' think it would end?
2:54p ET Saturday, May 24, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Given the likely lack of market commentary and news over
the long holiday weekend in the United States, maybe the
exchange below will be a reasonable substitute.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Dear GATA:

Thank you for your continued work as a conduit for
the kind of information provided by the Insight
magazine article about the "strong-dollar policy."

It's reasonable to suppose that the formulators of the
"strong-dollar policy" hoped it could be sustained in
perpetuity. But they probably would have asked
themselves, "What would be the consequences if it
doesn't continue indefinitely?"

It's likely that the policy gurus felt that the downside
damage could be contained by the following
mechanism.

If the overseas appetite for dollars eventually faltered
because of a massive, unsustainable increase in
irredeemable debt, the debts would have been
accrued in highly valued dollars but would be paid
back -- if at all -- in cheaper dollars. The
purchasing-power spread between the inflow of
high-value dollars and the eventual outflow of
cheaper dollars constitutes a kind of systematic theft
from holders of the debt, including those around the
world foolish enough to believe that the United States
is sincere in its international friendships.

I can't believe that policy makers didn't consider this
possible result if and when demand for dollars came
to falter. They further must have hoped that the
importance of the United States as the consumer of last
resort would make it "too big to fail," thereby ensuring
that addiction to ever-increasing debt was not "our"
problem but was instead a problem for creditors.

-- D.O., England
  • 0

#227 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 10:58 AM

Dear D.O.:

Thanks for your note. Yes, the gold price suppression
scheme and the "strong-dollar policy" are essentially
the expropriation of the world by the United States,
or a tax by the American empire (I hate that word
and concept but I'm afraid nothing else will do) on the
rest of the world. The rest of the world is free to
attempt to escape, but it's like the old saw about
banking: When you owe the bank a thousand dollars,
you're under the bank's thumb, and when you owe
the bank a million dollars, it's under YOUR thumb. U.S.
creditors can escape now only by putting most of their
foreign exchange reserves at risk.

What did the originators of the "strong-dollar policy"
think about its way of ending? My suspicion has
been that the policy never looked beyond President
Clinton's re-election in 1996 but got out of control
because it produced so much free money for the
Wall Street interests that had come to bankroll
both major political parties in the United States.

If there is a change in the policy now, as seems
likely, it may result from warnings from foreign
governments that have the power to crash the
dollar by converting their dollar reserves abruptly
-- warnings that the dollar exchange rate must
be adjusted downward gradually with the
co-operation of the U.S. government or it will be
done violently without that co-operation, with
great dislocations in the U.S. and world economies.

This is essentially what the GATA delegation led by
GATA Chairman Bill Murphy told House Speaker
Dennis Hastert and other members and staffers of
Congress in private meetings a few years ago when
we presented them with copies of our "Gold Derivatives
Banking Crisis" report.

Information that came to us subsequently and indirectly
made clear that the higher officials to whom we had
spoken had known something about the problem already
and met with us largely to determine how much WE knew
and how much had leaked into the public domain. That is,
the problem was considered a matter of U.S. national
security. In a way it was such a problem, except that in a
democracy public economic policy must be public. Of
course it was a problem of INTERnational economic
security too, and thus doubly deserving of disclosure.

GATA continues to publicize the gold price suppression
scheme and the dishonesty of the "strong-dollar policy"
in the hope of ending U.S. economic imperialism and its
expropriation of the world, particularly the developing
world, and ending its reciprocal threat to U.S. economic
security. Of course GATA hasn't quite achieved that yet
and so maybe the best GATA can offer to those who are
listening is "sauve qui peut."

A good way of accomplishing that is to put a substantial
share of one's wealth into gold and silver -- physical
gold and silver in possession or allocated gold and
silver in the vault of a trusted depository, not "paper
gold." People listed below may be relied upon for that
purpose.

-- CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

----------------------------------------------------

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

gata-subscribe@yahoogroups.com

To unsubscribe, send an e-mail to:

gata-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com
  • 0

#228 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 10:59 AM

RECOMMENDED INTERNET SITES
FOR DAILY MONITORING OF GOLD
AND PRECIOUS METALS
NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Free sites:

http://www.jsmineset.com

http://www.mineweb.com/

http://www.gold-eagle.com/

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.usagold.com/

http://www.GoldSeek.com/

http://www.goldenbar.com/

http://www.moneyfiles.org/

http://www.silver-investor.com

http://www.thebulliondesk.com/

http://www.sharelynx.net

http://www.mininglife.com/

http://www.financialsense.com

http://www.goldensextant.com

http://www.goldismoney.info/index.html

http://www.depression2.tv

http://www.minersman.../minernews.html

http://www.a1-guide-...-vs-dollar.html



Subscription site:

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/

Eagle Ranch discussion site:

http://os2eagle.net/checksum.htm

----------------------------------------------------

COIN AND PRECIOUS METALS DEALERS
WHO HAVE SUPPORTED GATA
AND BEEN RECOMMENDED
BY OUR MEMBERS

Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
www.USAGold.com
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US (800) 869-5115
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
cpm@u...


Colorado Gold
222 South 5th St.
Montrose, Colorado 81401
www.ColoradoGold.com
Don Stott, Proprietor
1-888-786-8822
Gold@g...


Investment Rarities Inc.
7850 Metro Parkwa
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55425
http://www.gloomdoom.com
Greg Westgaard, Sales Manager
1-800-328-1860, Ext. 8889
gwestgaard@i...


Lee Certified Coins
P.O. Box 1045
454 Daniel Webster Highway
Merrimack, New Hampshire 03054
www.certifiedcoins.com
Ed Lee, Proprietor
1-800-835-6000
leecoins@a...


Miles Franklin Ltd.
3015 Ottawa Ave. South
St. Louis Park, Minn. 55416
1-800-822-8080 / 952-929-1129
fax: 952-925-0143
http://www.milesfranklin.com
Contacts: David Schectman,
Andy Schectman, and Bob Sichel


Resource Consultants Inc.
6139 South Rural Road
Suite 103
Tempe, Arizona 85283-2929
Pat Gorman, Proprietor
1-800-494-4149, 480-820-5877
Metalguys@a...


Swiss America Trading Corp.
15018 North Tatum Blvd.
Phoenix, Arizona 85032
http://www.buycoin.com
Dr. Fred I. Goldstein, Senior Broker
1-800-BUY-COIN
figoldstein@b...

----------------------------------------------------

HOW TO HELP GATA

If you benefit from GATA's dispatches, please
consider making a financial contribution to
GATA. We welcome contributions as follows.

By check:

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
c/o Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, CT 06043-7541
USA

By credit card (MasterCard, Visa, and
Discover) over the Internet:

http://www.gata.org/creditcard.html


By GoldMoney:

http://www.GoldMoney.com
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Holding number 50-08-58-L


Donors of $750 or more will, upon request,
be sent a print of Alain Despert's colorful
painting symbolizing our cause, titled "GATA."

GATA is a civil rights and educational
organization under the U.S. Internal Revenue
Code and contributions to it are tax-deductible
in the United States.

-END-
  • 0

#229 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 11:03 AM

Gold rises in India on dollar's weakness

New Delhi, May 22, IRNA -- Gold prices in India after having declined in a war situation during the Iraq war for the first time, have staged a smart comeback, local media reported here on Thursday.

Gold has been moving around its three and a half month high of $370 an ounce and Rs. 5,700 level in the domestic market. The precious metal was up on dollar weakness along with tension in the Middle East as also global economic worries.

From $348 anounce in the beginning of March, it came down to $330 and in the domestic market, it had reacted to Rs. 5,250 from Rs. 5,600 (10 gm).

The trend in spiraling gold prices is also because the dollar slip into a four year low against the euro and more than three year low against the Japanese yen, analyst says.

"The main factor then, is the strong euro which has taken control and the subsequent dollar weakness against it and the Japanese yen. The euro is quoting at 1.17 to the dollar and in fact, now, as earlier, gold prices rise when the U.S. dollar falls but also with a strengthening euro," said Dinesh Parekh, a bullion analyst.

Typically, gold thrives in times of economic and political uncertainty and has gained by about 13 per cent since early April when investor interest shifted from the Iraq scenario to struggling U.S. economy and a weak dollar.

"The Comex stock of gold has gone up by 20.6 per cent since December 2002. The real positive factor is that in spite of an increase in volume of more than three lakh ounces, the price has not come down. Investors are buying gold internationally and more fully shifting faith to gold rather than the dollar. The `store of value' concept of gold is back," said the bullion analyst.

In the domestic market too, gold has moved up in consonance with international markets. From Rs. 5,370 (10 gm) in the beginning of this month, it has moved up slowly to Rs. 5,725.

Recycled gold is not coming into the market in volumes as it was the case earlier. "Three months ago, more than 300 tons of recycled gold came in. This will go up if prices remain high," said Parekh, adding that at Rs. 5060-5,300, almost all recycled gold which was sold was repurchased.

/RR
End

http://www.irna.com/...53554.ehe.shtml
  • 0

#230 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 26 May 2003 - 11:06 AM

Bush makes poor pay for military might and tax cuts

Schools and health lose out as US public services endure worst crisis since 1930s

Julian Borger in Harrah, Oklahoma
Monday May 26, 2003
The Guardian

School was definitely over for Sally Kelly last week. The Oklahoma primary school teacher was trying to cram years of accumulated experience and memories into a few cardboard boxes and get them out of the door before the building was locked up for the holidays.
Thousands of teachers across the state and the US have been doing more or less the same thing in the past few months, squeezed out by a combination of recession, tax cuts and record military spending. Oklahoma is cutting 6,000 teaching jobs in the financial year just ending and the next, and the budgetary outlook is grim. But for Ms Kelly, there is more at stake than losing her vocation. Her breast cancer is in remission but still requires monitoring and medicines. Without the health insurance that came with her job, she can afford neither.

"For me, it's a life and death situation," she said, sitting in the deserted classroom, her head covered by a yellow turban to hide the effects of chemotherapy.



http://www.guardian....,963529,00.html
  • 0

#231 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 27 May 2003 - 01:46 AM

Once again Insight magazine's Kelly Patricia O'Meara has done the basic reporting that America's vaunted financial press won't do. In a new article in Insight, she asks: Just what is that "strong-dollar policy" that is always cited but never explained? She finds that if there is such a policy, those in charge of it aren't telling what it is. O'Meara quotes at generous length the explanation provided by GATA Chairman Bill Murphy: The "strong-dollar policy" is actually the U.S. government's policy of surreptitiously suppressing the price of gold.

* * *

'Strong Dollar' Hides Weak Policy

By Kelly Patricia O'Meara Insight Magazine May 23, 2003
http://www.insightma...ews/436789.html

Kelly Patricia O'Meara is an investigative reporter for
Insight.






Royalty bows and curtsies, nations tremble and financial institutions begin to stammer when threatened by three words: "strong-dollar policy." For a phrase that has risen from the swamps of the dismal science only within the last decade, it nonetheless has taken on a kind of Godzilla status in the global economic community. And while the worlds of pundits, technocrats and economic seers have held their breath awaiting official support for such a "policy" by each successive administration, there are many who believe the phrase is nothing more than the federal equivalent of "Gesundheit!"

Having failed to turn up an official definition of "strong-dollar policy," and on the barest chance that the policy spells out steps to keep the dollar strong, Insight sought out the great and near great to clarify what the phrase might mean. Alas, it immediately became clear that the economists, politicians and managers most likely to be responsible for any such "policy," if there is one, make it a black-letter policy never to discuss, well, the "policy."

Take for example Robert Rubin, who was Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton. Now a board member of Citigroup and a bazillionaire, Rubin is credited widely with being the key architect of the strong-dollar policy. Keenly aware of the dollar's recent slide against other world currencies, Rubin apparently could not be bothered with this slight question and did not return Insight's calls to inquire how this "policy" for which he is famous might actually work.

Lawrence Summers, now president of Harvard University, followed in Godzilla's footsteps by taking over as Treasury secretary upon Rubin's departure. Summers did not depart from the strong-dollar policy, and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan raved about Rubin's replacement. Greenspan made it clear that the strong-dollar policy was here to stay, and said Summers "is a person of extraordinary talent and judgment who will continue the important work Bob Rubin initiated." But when Insight requested an interview to discuss the "policy," even to request a definition of what it might be, Summers too was unavailable.
  • 0

#232 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 27 May 2003 - 01:58 AM

Given that the top bananas of the strong-dollar policy were unwilling even to discuss this weighty verity, Insight's reporter reasoned that even a standard-reference definition of "policy" might be helpful. According to the American Heritage Dictionary, the word "policy" came out of Latin through the tortuous trials of the Middle English and Middle French to mean "a plan or course of action, as of a government, political party or business, designed to influence and determine decisions, actions and other matters."

Seems simple enough, but what about the rest? While everyone gives lip service to supporting the strong-dollar policy, and the world is acutely aware of that support because it routinely is touted as the core of U.S. financial practice, no one who knows would say what it is. So Insight rephrased the question, asking: What is the official course of action, the plan or design, to make the dollar strong? Put that way, current Treasury Secretary John Snow responds: "There has been a consistent policy on the dollar going back the better part of a decade, which I support. I favor a strong dollar. A strong dollar is in the national interest. A strong currency provides a reliable medium of exchange and serves as a stable store of value that people choose to hold. Sound pro-growth economic policies and a commitment to free and open markets are the foundation for a strong dollar."

Uh-huh, but what is the "policy" that ensures all or any of this? Is it possible that any administration might not be committed to free and open markets in the interest of stability? Is a closed and manipulated market a policy option?

While Insight is not into economic gnosticism, and does not claim to specialize in the arcane secret knowledge of monetarism, Secretary Snow's "policy" still seemed a little oblique. Asked to clarify the secretary's explanation of the strong-dollar policy, a spokesman for Snow tells this reporter: "The secretary has said that a strong domestic economy, an inviting investment climate and competitive markets are the best way to achieve a strong dollar." Huh? That's the "policy"?

Well, it isn't sexy, but it's an answer. The problem is that it appears to have a strong similarity to the explanation that "Wet streets cause rain."

Determined to find someone in officialdom who actually might explain the mechanics of the strong-dollar policy, Insight determined to pore through statements on these matters by the top money manager of all time, a man so open in his deportment and so filled with libertarian principles that for years he lectured on economics to the devout followers of the late Ayn Rand. Whole nations are at risk of collapse when the master of the Federal Reserve Board speaks, so every word he utters is examined with the greatest of care. But when it comes to the strong-dollar policy, Fed Reserve Board Chairman Greenspan has been quiet as a church mouse. This apparently is so, according to a spokesperson, because "the Federal Reserve does not comment on the strong-dollar policy. We defer to the Treasury Department on that."

Been there, done that and bought the T-shirt.

Which raises several questions. For instance, is it possible that the strong-dollar policy is not economics at all but polemics, that it is in fact an upbeat phrase in search of a policy? If not that, then what? Could there be something nefarious about the "policy" that the establishment economists and money managers are determined to keep close to their vests? Given that the men who created the "policy," and those who support it, cannot or will not explain what it is, one hardly can be surprised at charges that this emperor of economic shibboleths may be naked as a jaybird.

Steve H. Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, tells Insight that the alleged policy is so much yah-yah. "Officially," Hanke explains, "everyone will run for cover. No one is going to be able to tell you what the strong-dollar policy is because it is a rhetorical phrase coming out of Washington that is meaningless. Analytically it doesn't mean anything at all."

According to Hanke, "The strong-dollar policy became the mantra of Treasury secretaries Rubin and Summers, and the reason the press kept repeating it is that during their tenure at Treasury the dollar was 'strong' relative to other currencies. But we weren't doing anything in the form of a policy, and Rubin and Summers knew it was an empty phrase. The press heard Rubin say, 'Oh, yes, we have a strong-dollar policy,' and then the dollar gets stronger relative to other currencies, so they think there is some policy - that there's something in the shadows going on that is consistent with this. No one ever thought about asking what it was. The fact is that there's nothing in those shadows, and no one was - or is - doing anything."

But Bill Murphy, chairman of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, a nonprofit organization that researches and studies the gold markets and reports its findings at www.LeMetropoleCafe.com, claims to have taken a good look into the shadows. He tells Insight that "asking this question is important because the strong-dollar policy isn't just an empty phrase. It started with a paper written by former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers entitled Gibson's Paradox and the Gold Standard, which stated 'gold prices in a free market should move inversely to real interest rates.'" In other words, Murphy explains, "what has been happening is that a policy to hold down the dollar price of gold was instituted to keep the dollar strong. The idea was to hide inflation, keep interest rates low and attract money to U.S. markets. This kept the average investor from getting any hint that something was wrong with the dollar itself. The strong-dollar policy amounts to little more than secretly using U.S. bullion and claims on it to manipulate the gold market. By keeping the gold price down, keeping it low, they made even gold uncompetitive to the dollar, reassuring the world that all was well."

Murphy asks: "If this administration supports the so-called strong-dollar policy - the same alleged policy as Rubin and Summers - why is the dollar tanking? That is, how has the 'policy' changed? I've been asking this for two years and no one has been able even to tell me the mechanics of the original strong-dollar policy. If they can't tell you what it is then how can they possibly tell you how it has changed?"

According to Murphy, "It's going to be quite a story when this thing finally blows. Just look at the Enron mess. No one knew what was going on there and how bad it was until it blew up, and only then did everyone find out what a fraud it was. The same will be true of the strong-dollar policy. It's just a lot of nonsense."

Whether the strong-dollar policy is "nonsense" is yet to be seen. What is clear, however, is that no one in officialdom seems willing and able to provide a cohesive explanation of what the "policy" consists of, or how it is implemented, leaving the economists and pundits to speculate and surmise. In the meantime, the "strong" dollar has become "soft," down almost 26 percent against the euro and 21 percent against the Swiss franc.

Currently, the United States has the highest trade deficit in its history, totaling a whopping $503 billion. This means the country has bought and imported $503 billion more in goods than it has exported, flooding foreign capital markets with dollars to invest in the United States or buy more U.S. goods, the prices of which such massive purchases naturally would bid upward. Perhaps even more important is that the U.S. economy is dependent on an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion a day of foreign investment to stay afloat. The dollar is losing more of its "strength" every day, and a decline in foreign investments already has begun.

Having just the tiniest clue about the "policy" that made the dollar strong might be helpful should it continue its downward slide. Then again, maybe the strong-dollar policy has been nonsense all along and what we have here is a case of no one bothering to demand an explanation from those who support it. Whatever it is.

In his most recent attempt to define or "redefine" his terms, Treasury Secretary Snow has embarrassed himself internationally by insisting there is a strong-dollar policy, but denying its strength could be measured against other currencies, saying "strong" is only a matter of public confidence and assurance that counterfeiting is under control. The secretary's remarks immediately were read as a "change" in policy, which was interesting in that he still had not defined U.S. dollar "policy." Worse, that "strong means confidence" explanation still was floating in the air when a Treasury spokesman jumped in to declare that "there has been no change in policy."

Considering that no one in the free world had been found to explain the "old" strong-dollar policy, maybe it's a good thing that no "new" policy was implemented. In the meantime, however, word that the emperor was buck naked and could not credibly define his policy had spooked the currency exchanges, causing confidence to plummet and the dollar to drop further against most of the other major currencies. Res ipsa loquitur.
  • 0

#233 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 28 May 2003 - 12:54 PM

The June Dollar gapped up and traded sharply higher overnight due to short covering, which left a potential one-day island bottom on the daily chart marked by Tuesday's low. However, closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 93.86 and then the reaction high at 95.53 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If June extends this year's decline, a test of the 1998 low crossing at 90.74 is possible later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is beginning to turn down hinting that it might be aborting its bearish mode. This is a clear warning sign to bears to use caution as a short-term low might be near. Overnight action sets the stage for a firmer tone in early-day session trading.

The June Euro was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking following Tuesday's spike above weekly resistance crossing at 119.19. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is turning neutral warning traders that a short-term top might be in or is near. However, it will take closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.50 and then the reaction low crossing at 113.52 to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If this spring's rally continues, weekly resistance crossing at 119.80 and then 123.04 are potential targets later this spring. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The June British Pound was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates around February's high crossing at 1.6380. Closes above last week's high crossing at 1.6444 would confirm an upside breakout of this resistance level while opening the door for a possible test of weekly resistance crossing at 1.6524 later this spring. The daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) is bullish hinting that additional short-term gains are possible near-term. However, multiple closes below the 10-day are possible near-term. However, multiple closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.6293 would increase the odds that this spring's rally has come to an end. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The June Swiss Franc was lower overnight due to profit taking after posting a new contract high on Tuesday. June is once again challenging initial support marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at .7699. Closes below the 10-day moving average and then the May 19th gap at .7670 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. If this spring's rally continues, a test of long-term resistance crossing at .7920 is possible later this spring. The daily ADX is bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The June Canadian Dollar was lower overnight and appears poised to renew its decline off last week's high following the recent breakout below the 10-day moving average. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .7198 would open the door for a larger-degree setback into early-June. The recent downturn by the daily ADX (a trend- following indicator) also suggests that a short-term top has likely been posted. If this spring's rally resumes, the November 1996 high on the monthly chart crossing at .7551 is a potential target later this year. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker tone in early-day session trading.

The June Japanese Yen was sharply lower overnight and has broken out below both the 10 and 20-day moving averages and last week's low at .8496 thereby renewing its decline off last Monday's high. June is now challenging the 40-day moving average crossing at .8446 and closes below this support level would open the door for a larger-degree setback into early-June. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Overnight action sets the stage for a weaker tone in early-day session trading.
  • 0

#234 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 30 May 2003 - 12:12 PM

Intresting article on investment and fiat currency.


Nothing Is Better Than Gold 05/30/2003 14:33
Russian economists discuss an opportunity to put a golden ruble in circulation

In developed countries, almost every family has stocks or state bonds. Exchange news is the real information, people show their interest in it. They do not keep their savings at home, they make money work for the economy, the money is invested in the real sector of economy, in the production of goods and export, in the development of new technologies, and so on. This is probably the reason why the living standard of developed countries seems to be a dream for the majority of the planet's population.

It seems that Russia has chosen the way of the world's poorest and hopeless countries. There are investment tools in Russia, but they are meant for a very narrow group of "insiders." Everyone else use notes of the American State Treasury. Russian governmental officials and bankers have been concerned about Russian people's wish to save their money at home, not in banks. The government arranged the bank reform, they passed the law about insuring people's deposits (which does not insure anything really). The result of those measures was ridiculous. The US dollar started going down, but Russians did not hurry to open bank deposits either. Therefore, the Russian bank system is not meant for saving funds and making investments. To all appearance, it is meant for something else. What if all Russians decided to bring all their money to banks one day? Nothing would change either way. Russian banks invest almost nothing in the country's economy - it is a rather risky thing to do. Most likely, that money would be used for purchasing a chalet in Switzerland or a house on Bermudas. The rest of the money would then be transferred to foreign banks in order to work for the economy of foreign countries (big money brings very good profit in developed countries without any risks). So why does Russia need such banks at all? Even Russian largest state monopolies have to borrow funds abroad.

Experts say that it is very hard to create an efficient and reliable investment tool in Russia. In fact, there are a lot of such tools in the country, but they are not used according to their purpose. Although, thee is a small group of people, who use investment tools, albeit for their personal interests only. Prices on land, apartments and other saving tools have been growing in Russia recently. The US dollar has exhausted such opportunities, and Russians do not see any other investment tool to use. However, Russian people reportedly possess up to 60 billion dollars in total - this money does not work for anything.

This "analytical suffering" will continue until the state pays attention to the most ancient and yet most reliable investment tool - gold. Economists have been arguing about the golden ruble for along already, referring to the ten-ruble gold piece of Stalin's era and recollecting the incredible industrial growth that occurred during the ruling of Russian emperors Alexander III and Nikolay II. That was the time, when the Russian golden ruble was the most secure and stable currency in the world. However, economists do not make any decisions - politicians and officials of the Russian Finance Ministry and the Central Bank do. They are all certain that the state can grow rich without gold too. It probably can, but not the Russian Federation of the stability and moderate economic growth period.

Bloomberg reports, world prices on gold have reached the highest point over recent months - 367,8 dollars per ounce. The agency believes that the price of a troy ounce on the world market may exceed the level of $400 until the end of the current year. There is probably no other way. The US dollar has been a saving tool for the whole world, not for Russia alone. Investors do not know, where to invest, that is why they prefer to buy gold. American state bonds lose their attraction on account of the interest rate reduction.

RBC news agency reports that gold does not work in Russia as an investment tool. Producers sell gold to banks, and banks sell it on world exchanges, obtaining demising dollars or euro for gold bars. The euro has been growing lately, but it will inevitably crash some day.

A common person can hardly buy gold - it is rather difficult. In addition to that, it is hard for a common person to sell it too. Jewelry does not count, for people buy it as a work of art, which is then sold as precious scrap. Analysts believe that such a situation takes place because of the tough control of the state and the taxation burden.

In general, the circulation of gold in Russia is a market for a very small group of people, it is impossible for a common person to access it. For example, one has to pay the value added tax of 20 percent for purchasing gold. When selling gold, the tax is not reimbursed. In other words, this 20 percent will go straight to the state. In addition to that, any bank will have to provide the information to fiscal bodies about anyone who purchases gold. Golden coins are not imposed with value added tax, though, and the Russian Central Bank has already launched the series production of them. In addition to it, the Central Bank periodically informs about the increase of their sales. However, golden coins cause problems as well. One can not use them in a store, selling them back to the Central Bank is not profitable either.

Why doesn't Russia use the golden ruble yet? Investment tools are not meant for common people. Probably, the government wants to make Russians save their money in Russian banks. However, people do not trust the bank system anyway. Probably, they want to make Russians save their money in US dollars. A lot of experts believe that about two-thirds of all dollars are not secured with anything. The US Treasury has a goal to trace and destroy those dollars secretly.

To all appearance, Russia has agreed to become a place, where excessive dollars are saved. There is no one to claim this responsibility - they are not in power anymore. However, all people had to pay for their decisions. Nothing is better than gold.

Kira Poznakhirko

Read the original in Russian: http://economics.pra..._GOLDRUBLE.html (Translated by: Dmitry Sudakov)



http://english.pravd...10148_gold.html
  • 0

#235 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 31 May 2003 - 09:10 PM

Sure wish pravda would make up their mind on this.

No More Chance for Dollar The rest of the world starts to bail on the dollar.

This is the downside of a fiat monetary system. When US money was based on gold or silver, the holder of the money controlled its worth. Nothing the government did could alter the worth of that gold or silver. Government's only job was to guarantee that the monetary units were of consistent sizes and weights. But under the fiat-system, control of the worth of the money passed from the holder of the money to the issuing government, and as the government printed up more and more paper money unsupported by anything of value, the worth of the individual monetary units declined. The current dollar Federal Reserve Note is worth roughly 1/40th of what a dollar Silver Certificate was worth, and now, driven by a billion and a half a day trade deficit, the dollar is about to take a huge plunge. There is a terrible irony in this. The whole reason for the war was to try to salvage the hopeless debt problem the government is in by grabbing Iraq's oil and selling it for dollars, to prop up demand for dollars. But if the dollar collapses, those companies pumping out that oil will still want to charge the world market price, which means prices domestically will skyrocket. That in turn will drive up the prices of every other product that uses petroleum products in any way, shape, or form. And, since most of the manufactured goods we purchase in America are imports, a dropping dollar will send their prices through the roof. A devalued dollar helps trade only if the US has vast amounts of products ready to export, which it does not. The US Government turned its back on manufacturing decades ago. As the dollar drops, foreign investors will seek more profitable locales for their money, and those portions of the government debt held by foreign interests and calculated in the currency of the lending nation also become far greater. The bills of all the "deficit spending" have come due. And there is nothing left to pay them with.




No More Chance for Dollar 05/30/2003 20:22

The European Union and Russia are playing against the US currency

It was just a short time ago that everybody was hoping the dollar had finally stopped its fall and would soon strengthen its position relative to the euro. Analysts explain that the slight rise in the value of the American currency was connected with the desperate hope of world markets a better positions for the dollar.

There is a suspicion that the European Central Bank may play a dirty trick on the US currency. Traders are afraid, and not without reason, that the Bank may drop the rate below today's 2.5%. What is more, many European economists don't think that the euro's excessive strengthening poses a serious threat to the economic stability of United Europe. Therefore, the Europeans are treating the dollar-s decline as a nice opportunity to improve the economic situation in Europe. If so, reduction of the European Central Bank's rate will be treated as one more stimulus to revive the economies of the EU countries.

Otmar Issing, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, thinks that dollar rise with respect to the euro is not dangerous and gives no reasons for anxiety. He says that further strengthening of the European currency gives the European Central Bank a wider opportunity maneuvering in monetary policy and produces inflation curbing. Many leading European experts share this opinion, which is rather unfavorable for the dollar.

The US dollar is facing a rather complicated situation in Russia. According to the results of the United Trading Session of the inter-bank currency exchanges, today the average weighted euro came to 36.5116 rubles per euro, thus breaking the record of 36.0948 rubles per euro fixed a day before. There is no reason to think the situation may change before next week.

Experts say that traders in Russia are playing against the dollar more actively, as they expect to profit considerably from the dollar-s decline. Against the background of the Central Bank-s inertness (the Bank is still reluctant to support the dollar), it looks as if a decision has been made to reduce Russia's dependence upon the American currency. Although the dollar is supported by the Asian countries, the situation on the world markets is unfavorable for the dollar, which in its turn allows the euro to break new records one after another. If Russia has finally yielded to the EU-s persuasion and joined the anti-dollar struggle, the situation may have far-reaching consequences not only in the outside world but in Russia as well.

Kira Poznakhirko




http://english.pravd...156_dollar.html
  • 0

#236 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 31 May 2003 - 10:43 PM

THE FEDERAL RESERVE EYES JAPAN REMAKE
MORE HEADLINES TODAY @
http://www.moneyfiles.org

America
  • 0

#237 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 04 June 2003 - 10:14 PM

How weird.. Unless the fed is intervening in the markets again.

Stocks vs. bonds

Both markets continue to rally big time. Why?
June 4, 2003: 8:42 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The way both Treasurys and stocks have been acting, many Wall Streeters have concluded that one of the markets is playing with a corked bat.

Since the Fed meeting a month ago, where the central bank basically pounded the idea that rates will not go higher for a long, long time, both markets have put on good rallies, with the S&P 500 gaining 4.9 percent and the Lehman Brothers Long Term Treasury index gaining 5.9 percent.

On the face of it, it appears that the two markets have differing views of how successful the Fed will be in its venture. Stock types reckon that the gambit will work, and that the lower long-term interest rates it has bred will inject a raft of capital into the economy as well as let consumers and corporations shore up their ailing balance sheets. The result will be a shift back to economic health, and profits growth.

But the stock market's scenario implies an environment where, never mind what the Fed has hinted it will do, rates would be heading higher. Remember, the environment where companies get pricing power again and profits come back is also an environment where inflation has come back into play.


"What is the bond market betting on?," asks Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist Richard Berner. "The market appears to be betting the Fed will try hard and fail."

But there are inconsistencies, Berner points out. In such an environment, where the Fed keeps rates low, and even brings them lower, but the economy fails to respond, the yields on Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, would collapse, and credit spreads on corporate debt would explode. Neither has happened.

So what's going on? Credit Suisse First Boston strategist Paddy Jilek suggests that the real issue is duration. The Fed, in its suggestion that it will keep short term rates low, has forced investors to widen their time horizons significantly. This means that long-term bonds have become far more attractive, as well as other long-term assets -- like stocks.

Jilek also points out that the stocks with the longest time horizons have done particularly well. Speculative plays, like biotechs and dot.coms, which promise to deliver on some undetermined future date, have been by far the best performers of the year, with the Amex Biotech index up 33.5 percent and the Goldman Sachs Internet index up 57.9 percent.

Meanwhile, shorter duration industries are ones that are far along in their life cycle -- they may continue to offer returns, but much of their exciting era is in the past. Things like auto, chemical and transportation companies. And indeed, the stocks of these companies have been among the year's biggest laggards.

http://money.cnn.com...idask/index.htm
  • 0

#238 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 05 June 2003 - 09:07 PM

Deutsche Bank ups 2003 gold price forecast by 5 pct

Thursday June 5, 7:50 AM EDT LONDON, June 5 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank (DBKGn) said on Thursday it had increased its forecasts for average gold prices for the next three years due to the end of a prolonged bull market in the dollar, associated euro strength and their combined effect on investment demand.In a Global Commodities Focus looking at the effects of currency on commodities, Deutsche Bank (DB) analyst Peter Richardson raised his forecast for the average price of gold in 2003 by five percent to $357 an ounce.Prices were seen rising progressively through the year, moving from an estimated $350 in the second quarter of 2003 to $360 and $364 in the third and fourth quarters.The bank also increased its forecasts for 2004 and 2005 by 14 and 15 percent respectively to $372 and $380.DB's forex strategists said the United States faced a trade-off between changes in the dollar's value and changes in relative demand growth to resolve its external balance problems.

"Given this dilemma, the risk of a major downside overshoot in the dollar's value appears to be quite high," the report said.
DB has revised its year-ahead forecast for the dollar/euro rate to $1.25 from $1.20 previously. Longer term, DB's strategists saw the downtrend continuing, adding they would not be surprised to see the euro rise to an eventual peak in a $1.30-1.40 range.
The euro was trading at around $1.167 on Thursday, having risen as high as $1.19 last week.

INVESTMENT DEMAND KEY

Richardson identified three main drivers behind gold's rally over the past two years: increased investor demand, reduction in producer hedging and a fall in mine output."Growth in investment demand was the single most important factor behind the rise in gold prices in 2002 and, in our view, will be a key factor determining the outlook over the forecast period 2003-2005."Bullion prices have gained some 35 percent since mid-2001, peaking at a 6-1/2 year high of $388 in February. Spot gold was indicated at $362.10/362.60 at 1051 GMT on Thursday, down from New York's previous $362.60/363.10.

The precious metal has an inverse relationship with equities and currencies and in 2002 neither of the two other markets performed well, prompting investors to look elsewhere.DB said the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 16.9 percent in 2002, while the Standard and Poors 500 index fell by 24 percent in dollar terms. The dollar itself also dropped by nearly nine percent in trade-weighted index (TWI) terms and by 16 percent versus the euro.

In 2003, the depreciation of the TWI of the dollar was even more persistent which, DB said, suggested that this was now the dominant force behind the growth in investment demand for gold.
Richardson said that a marked increase in global political tensions had also aided the upturn in gold investment demand.
Excess industrial capacity weakness in mature economies, weakness in business confidence, low investment spending and rising energy costs would also hinder recovery in the global economy.

"Under these circumstances, we now expect investor interest in the gold market to remain high for well beyond 2003," Richardson said

[url]http://money.iwon.com/jsp/nw/nwdt_rt_top.jsp?cat=TOPBIZ&src=201&feed=reu
  • 0

#239 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 05 June 2003 - 11:49 PM

The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday and tested last week's low at 92.35. Closes below this support level would renew this year's decline while opening the door for a possible test of the 1998 low crossing at 90.74 later this year. Today's decline turned stochastics and the RSI bearish again hinting that additional weakness is possible near- term.

The June Euro posted a key reversal up on Thursday and the high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. Closes above last week's high crossing at 119.28, which coincides with weekly resistance would renew this spring's rally. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) turned neutral with today's rally hinting that the uptrend might be resuming in the near future. Closes below today's low at 116.29 would confirm a breakout below trendline support thereby opening the door for a larger- degree setback during June.

The June Swiss Franc posted a huge key reversal up on Thursday after breaking out below the 20-day moving average on Wednesday. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday. However, June needs to close above last week's high crossing at .7829 to renew this spring's rally. If this spring's rally resumes, the October 1998 high on the June weekly chart crossing at .7870 is a potential target later this spring.

The June Canadian Dollar posted a new contract high on Thursday but could not close above May's high at .7348. Closes above this resistance level would open the door for a possible test of monthly resistance crossing at .7551 later this month. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when Friday's trading begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible during the first half of June.

The June Japanese Yen closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and above last Friday's high at .8486 thereby tempering the near-term bearish outlook in the market. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening on Friday as stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low has likely been posted.
  • 0

#240 SmallMind

SmallMind

    Banned

  • Banned
  • PipPipPip
  • 387 posts

Posted 06 June 2003 - 12:57 PM

THE MERITS OF BUYING $ILVER NOW

Here is most of the $ilver
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Copyright © 2016 Pravda.Ru