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The demise of the US dollar.


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#101 Lumberjack

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 07:46 PM

UB,

What do you base your assesment of gold on?
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#102 atomant

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 07:50 PM

(1)

World Rapidly Drawing Down Oil Reserves

The Decline in World Oil Reserves Predicted by the Parabolic - Projection of Future Production and Discoveries

US Begins Secret Talks to Secure Iraq's Oilfields

Cheney's Former Company

Statistical Review of World Energy 2002

(2)

Nowhere a Drop to Drink: The Politics of Water in the Middle East

WATER ISSUES BETWEEN TURKEY, SYRIA AND IRAQ


(3)

As Bush considers colonizing Iraq, he ought to look at the last attempt

Permanent colonial occupation of Iraq and American domination of the region and its oil

US plan for Iraq: Back to colonialism

Israel's colonial war

(4)

Bush Signs Record Military Spending Bill

Bush signs record military spending bill

The Pentagon's New Budget, New Strategy, and New War

(5)

How We Lost Afghanistan

US loses trillions to 'ghost army'


(6)

U.S. Economic Collapse:

Confidence In Economy, Bush Is Slipping


US Labor And The War On Iraq

Peter Everington, chief investment specialist with Regent Fund Management, says: "The US market is a bubble that will burst. The Dow will fall to 6,500 and the highs may not be re-visited for over 10 years."

Stock market crashes are predictable, major decline is coming in 2003 and 2004, says UCLA physicist

U.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK

Consumer Debt Looks Set to Keep Soaring

Bankruptcy filings set record in 2002

The Federal Reserve Banking System - THE REAL TRUTH

THE U.S. LED GENOCIDE IN IRAQ SOME SOURCES, HISTORY, AND CURRENT FACTS
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#103 atomant

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 07:52 PM

Were seeing a temporary pull back on gold ...don't worry stay long on your gold investiments and you will make out very well.
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#104 Lumberjack

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 07:56 PM

Atom,
You think I was seriously going to take financial advice from uglybastard?

I was just curious if he had a reason for his opinion or if it was just something he heard from maria bofferama or whatever she calls herself.
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#105 gonzo

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 08:09 PM

Lumberjack, true it may be a long wait, but i am banking on things settling down in regards to war and war rhetoric. The Dow is only 500 points off my 8500 target and it can gain that much in only a few trading days. If Bush and company could keep quiet, and stop concentrating there efforts on war. I believe you would see the Dow jump as high as 1000 points in less than a month..
I think there opportunities to make some decent money now, but i have lost to much and need to take what i have and run.
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#106 gonzo

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 08:21 PM

Dow Jones Average
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#107 Lumberjack

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 08:27 PM

I think the market has priced in a successful Iraq campaign. Any surprises are likely to be negative. I think the market is very nervous and volatile right now,you could win or lose big over the next month. But heck, what do I know? I sold all my stocks in the spring of '98. bought land,built log houses.
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#108 atomant

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 08:28 PM

Originally posted by Lumberjack
Atom,
You think I was seriously going to take financial advice from uglybastard?

I was just curious if he had a reason for his opinion or if it was just something he heard from maria bofferama or whatever she calls herself.



Was just checking, I wanted to make sure you hadn't changed your mind. Did you catch the PBS frontline special last night ....it was excellent...confirmed everything you and I have been saying for a large part. Here are more links that go into further detail on some our post in this thread:


BUSH'S DEEP REASONS FOR WAR ON IRAQ: OIL, PETRODOLLARS, AND THE OPEC EURO QUESTION

The Real but Unspoken Reasons for the Upcoming Iraq War

The Real but Unspoken Reasons for Iraq War
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#109 Gandu

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Posted 24 February 2003 - 09:41 AM

Little by little people are noticing.






When will we buy oil in euros?

When it comes to the global oil trade, the dollar reigns supreme. But it has a challenger, writes Faisal Islam


Effectively, the normal standards of economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion (?1,880 billion) are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits. Two-thirds of world trade is dollar-denominated. Two-thirds of central banks' official foreign exchange reserves are also dollar-denominated.

Dollarisation of the oil markets is one of the key drivers for this, alongside, in recent years, the performance of the US economy. The majority of countries that require oil imports require dollars to pay for their fuel. Oil exporters similarly hold, as their currency reserve, billions in the currency in which they are paid. Investing these petrodollars straight back into the US economy is possible at zero currency risk.

When will we buy oil in euros?

When it comes to the global oil trade, the dollar reigns supreme. But it has a challenger, writes Faisal Islam

Sunday February 23, 2003
The Observer

Whether the price of oil is surging to new highs, as it is today, or slumping, as is predicted after a war in Iraq, there is one enduring constant: the

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dollar sign.
Oil trading, whether from Norway to the Netherlands, Britain to Bermuda, or Bahrain to Bangladesh, operates through the US greenback.

The oil-dollar nexus is one of the foundations of the world economy that inevitably filters through to geopolitics. Recycling so-called petrodollars, the proceeds of these high oil prices, has helped the United States run its colossal trade deficits. But the past year has seen the quiet emergence of the 'petroeuro'.

Effectively, the normal standards of economics have not applied to the US, because of the international role of the dollar. Some $3 trillion (?1,880 billion) are in circulation around the world helping the US to run virtually permanent trade deficits. Two-thirds of world trade is dollar-denominated. Two-thirds of central banks' official foreign exchange reserves are also dollar-denominated.

Dollarisation of the oil markets is one of the key drivers for this, alongside, in recent years, the performance of the US economy. The majority of countries that require oil imports require dollars to pay for their fuel. Oil exporters similarly hold, as their currency reserve, billions in the currency in which they are paid. Investing these petrodollars straight back into the US economy is possible at zero currency risk.

So the US can carry on printing money - effectively IOUs - to fund tax cuts, increased military spending, and consumer spending on imports without fear of inflation or that these loans will be called in. As keeper of the global currency there is always the last-ditch resort to devaluation, which forces other countries' exporters to pay for US economic distress. It's probably the nearest thing to a 'free lunch' in global economics.

And for a long time, everything has worked smoothly. The oil industry was born in Texas, and so developed in dollars. The complex web of supply chains, distribution, and futures markets, all run off the central rock that is the US dollar.

But now there is the euro. At the time of its launch, various overblown claims were made to its role as 'co-hegemon', sharing the spoils of reserve currency status. The rapid fall in the euro after its launch put paid to such suggestions. But the single currency has since rescued itself, reigniting talk of euro-ised oil. In fact, it's happening already.

Iraqi oil, two-thirds of which is being snapped up by US companies, can only be paid for in euros.

'It was a political move on the part of the Iraqi government to show that the euro could be a substitute for the dollar in denominating the oil price,' says Fadhil Chalabi of the Centre for Global Energy Studies.

That move was made in the same week that the euro reached its historic low of $0.82 in October 2000. The subsequent 30 per cent rise in the euro has greatly helped the United Nations' oil-for-food programme in Iraq.

Soon afterwards, Jordan launched its own bilateral trade scheme with Iraq, carried out entirely in euros.

Last year, in a little noticed Opec speech to a Spanish Finance Ministry conference, Javad Yarjani, a senior Iranian oil diplomat, said: 'It is quite possible that as bilateral trade increases between the Middle East and the European Union, it could be feasible to price oil in euros. This would foster further ties between these trading blocs by increasing commercial exchange, and by helping attract much-needed European investment in the Middle East.'

Yarjani said the 'critical question is the overall value and stability of the euro, and whether other countries within the union adopt the single currency'.

The first point is beginning to be answered. The second refers to Britain and Norway. If either joins the single currency, the key Brent benchmark could be redenominated in euros, offering an impetus to movers within Opec.




more..


http://www.observer....,900867,00.html
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#110 Gandu

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Posted 24 February 2003 - 09:43 AM

The Iranian and Russian parliaments have recently discussed adopting the euro for oil sales.

Oil pricing is just the background to a wider issue. The Bank of China and the Russian Central Bank are both rumoured to be waiting for the best moment to increase the holdings of euros.

uh oh.. more really nukable states.
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#111 SmallMind

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 05:41 PM

REFERENCES

Anon.,
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#112 SmallMind

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 05:43 PM

This information about Iraq??
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#113 SmallMind

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 09:56 PM

http://money.cnn.com..._drop/index.htm



The danger of the falling dollar

New Treasury Secretary Snow adds to the currency's woes, which could be trouble for the economy.


The once-proud U.S. dollar, battered and bruised in the past year, took another punch from new Treasury Secretary John Snow on Wednesday, raising the chance that the greenback's stumble could impact U.S. and global economies -- for better or worse.

The dollar, long the currency of choice for global investors, particularly during the stock market boom of the late 1990s, has fallen about 17 percent in the past year and about 7 percent since November.

The dollar fell to a four-year low against the euro overnight, though Snow and another Treasury official stopped some of the bleeding by trying to reassure the market that they hadn't abandoned the long-standing policy of supporting a strong dollar. But many traders were skeptical.


"You could always think of a weak dollar as having the same impact as low interest rates," said Brown Brothers Harriman currency economist Lara Rhame. "It has a stimulative impact on the economy and puts upward pressure on inflation. That's a net gain for the U.S. economy."



And there's another sticky problem for U.S. exporters: China pegs its currency to the dollar. In other words, a falling dollar is absolutely no help to U.S. exporters in China, one of the world's biggest economies and the nation that accounts for the biggest chunk of America's whopping trade deficit.

If consumers are paying higher prices for imported goods at a time when they're already paying through the nose for gasoline, that could put a damper on consumer confidence and spending.

"It reduces the standard of living for Americans because the cost of imports is going up," said UBS Warburg senior global economist Paul Donovan. "Americans have to work harder to buy a tank of gas [and other imported goods], so real household income is in decline."
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#114 puzzledude

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 09:21 AM

bump
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#115 SmallMind

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 01:07 PM

"More than half of the country's assets in the Forex Reserve Fund have been converted to euro, a member of the Parliament Development Commission, Mohammad Abasspour announced. He noted that higher parity rate of euro against the US dollar will give the Asian countries, particularly oil exporters, a chance to usher in a new chapter in ties with European Union's member countries.

"He said that the United States dominates other countries through its currency, noting that given the superiority of the dollar against other hard currencies, the US monopolizes global trade. The lawmaker expressed hope that the competition between euro and dollar would eliminate the monopoly in global trade." [5]

Aside from these political risks regarding Saudi Arabia and Iran, another risk factor is actually Japan. Perhaps the biggest gamble in a protracted Iraq war may be Japan's weak economy. [7] If the war creates prolonged oil high prices ($45 per barrel over several months), or a short but massive oil price spike ($80 to $100 per barrel), some analysts believe Japan's fragile economy would collapse. Japan is quite hypersensitive to oil prices, and if its banks default, the collapse of the second largest economy would set in motion a sequence of events that would prove devastating to the U.S. economy. Indeed, Japan's fall in an Iraq war could create the economic dislocations that begin in the Pacific Rim but quickly spread to Europe and Russia. The Russian government lacks the controls to thwart a disorderly run on the dollar, and such an event could ultimately force an OPEC switch to euros.

http://www.ratical.o.../RRiraqWar.html
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#116 SmallMind

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Posted 09 March 2003 - 09:41 PM

It will take you a few hours to read and go through this. But it explains how money is created and how the fed works.




The mandrake mechanism: an overview

The entire function of this machine is to convert debt into money. It's just that simple. First, the Fed takes all the government bonds which the public does not buy and writes a check to Congress in exchange for them. (It acquires other debt obligations as well, but government bonds comprise most of its inventory.) There is no money to back up this check. These fiat dollars are created on the spot for that purpose. By calling those bonds "reserves," the Fed then uses them as the base for creating 9 additional dollars for every dollar created for the bonds themselves. The money created for the bonds is spent by the government, whereas the money created on top of those bonds is the source of all the bank loans made to the nation's businesses and individuals. The result of this process is the same as creating money on a printing press, but the illusion is based on an accounting trick rather than a printing trick. The bottom line is that Congress and the banking cartel have entered into a partnership in which the cartel has the privilege of collecting interest on money which it creates out of nothing, a perpetual override on every American dollar that exists in the world. Congress, on the other hand, has access to unlimited funding without having to tell the voters their taxes are being raised through the process of inflation. If you understand this paragraph, you understand the Federal Reserve System.




Now for a more detailed view.
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#117 LifeisGood

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Posted 09 March 2003 - 10:23 PM

A good link for capitalism research.

Ludwig Von Mises Institute
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#118 LifeisGood

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Posted 09 March 2003 - 10:35 PM

When carter left office the total debt of the US was 4 trillion dollars,now it's 35 trillion. Manufacturing is about the same. This doesn't bother you at all? Every fiat money system in history has failed in exactly the same way,we seem to be approaching that point. Believe or do not, it's your net worth on the line, mine is protected.




Lumberjack- Your not talking about the U.S. government debt?
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#119 LifeisGood

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Posted 09 March 2003 - 10:43 PM

I just reviewed the entire thread and now understand this include's business and individuals.
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#120 SmallMind

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Posted 09 March 2003 - 11:26 PM

Originally posted by LifeisGood
Lumberjack- Your not talking about the U.S. government debt?



The 35 trillions is both US public and private debt. Although numbers like billions and trillions are thrown around carelessly, if you look deeper this is HUGE, I mean it is beyond comprehension. GDP of India and China is less than 2 trillion and that supports 2 billion people.

The 50 trillion in deriavties just at JP morgan is mind boggling. When something blows, the entire world financial system will be up like a nuke.
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