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US Unemployment Rate 20%, could it be?


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#141 pacific

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Posted 29 July 2003 - 07:49 PM

Future, What future?
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#142 pacific

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Posted 29 July 2003 - 07:56 PM

US shares tumble on job figures

Job fairs are booming as more Americans seek work
The number of people out of work in the US has hit a 20-year high.
The queue of people making unemployment benefit claims for two weeks or more leapt 87,000 to 3.82 million in the week to 28 June.

This is the highest figure since February 1983, seasonally adjusted Labor Department figures showed.

The figures combined with weaker-than-expected results from internet giant Yahoo and retailer Wal-Mart to spark a sell-off on Wall Street.

'No end in sight'

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 120 points, or 1.3%, at 9,036.

Businesses just are not hiring

Joel Naroff, economist
The broader Standard & Poor's 500 Index slumped 1.4% to 989.

The falls brought what investors are hoping will be a temporary break in the markets' recent good run.

Thursday's jobless figures come on top of a Labor Department report earlier this month, which showed the number of new claimants for US unemployment benefits in the latest week ending 5 July unexpectedly rose 5,000 to 439,000.

Wall Street analysts had been expecting a small decline in new claims.

Figures last week showed the US unemployment rate shot up unexpectedly to a nine-year high of 6.4% in June - up from 6.1% in May - as businesses axed 30,000 jobs.

"There just seems to be no end in sight to the softness in the labor market," said Naroff Economic Advisors president Joel Naroff.

Consumer spending

"Whatever hope we had from the downward trend we had been seeing seems to have disappeared," he added.

"Businesses just are not hiring."

Fears about rising unemployment continue to keep a lid on US consumer spending.

Retail giant Wal-Mart reported a small monthly sales gain, slightly below analysts' forecasts.

The company said June sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.7%.

Disappointing

The world's biggest company by revenue said warmer weather mid-month lifted demand for summer goods such as air conditioners.

It said it now expects July same-store sales to hit the high end of its forecast for a 2% to 4% gain.

Several other US retailers turned in disappointing results.

JC Penney's department stores reported a scant 0.1% increase in June same-store sales, but the retailer said sales picked up in the second half of the month after a sluggish start.

It said it now expects a second-quarter operating loss about equal to last year's.

Bucking the trend

Department store group Kohl's warned its second-quarter earnings would be well below estimates.

But fashion chain Gap continued to buck the trend, with like-for-like sales, at stores open at least a year, up 10% in June.

The results marked the ninth straight month of same-store sales growth for Gap, the largest US specialty retailer, following a 29-month slide.

Total sales for the five weeks to 5 July went up 13% to $1.5bn, the company said.

Food and drinks giant PepsiCo also reported strong figures.

It said quarterly profits were up 15%, on the back of a strong performance from its Frito-Lay snack business.

PepsiCo said it made $1.01bn profit, or 58 cents a share, in the three months to June 14, up from $875m, or 48 cents a share, a year earlier.

The company reported a 5% rise in worldwide volume, a measure closely watched by Wall Street.

Wal-Mart shares fell 1.6%, Gap slid 2.4% and JC Penney lost 1.9%. Pepsi shares gained 2.4%.
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#143 pacific

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Posted 29 July 2003 - 08:03 PM

Wall street perceptions are a little psycothic
Last week there was a good news about the Labor Market.
People don't react on the moment
People perception of the future is retarded on the time, it's not on the moment.
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#144 pacific

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Posted 29 July 2003 - 08:13 PM

Last week about less of 400,000 new unemployed
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#145 Bader

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Posted 29 July 2003 - 08:30 PM

we create things to save work and then scratch our heads when work becomes a shortage.
Does anyone turn the light on to see if its dark?
We are making a complexity out of something very simple,
firstly we need to stop thinking as we have been conditioned to think and just use common sense.
In the first stages of the industrial revolution manpower was
the main sourse of power. The econonmic theory was that the cost of
energy/manpower was released through employment to purchase what he had produced. It was logical that the system should balance. It didn't actually work that well but thats another story. The point is that the economic theory has basically remained intact but the world has changed.
Now technology does a lot of the work but gets no wages to
help clear its own production, and the reduced manpower
can't clear what is produced by the more productive technology.
Once most of the nations catch up the opportunity to export the
surplus reduces and we have a crisis on our hands.
If the value of work done by technology translated in terms of wages was dispensed to society, the original theory would remain rational and possible and costs would equal prices
making it mathematically possible for the system to balance
and everyone benefits from the technological progress.
We either put people first or remain in the shadow of our sacred cows.
The employment system as a means of clearing production and thus determining production/work, is obsolete.
The first call for work is for "means" and if society is becoming
richer in its potential to produce quality and quantity then it
can be monetarised so the standard of living goes up in
parallel, since it is not doing so because of an outdated system
of distribution based on "work" as it is conceived in more primative times, it's time to reform the theory and bureaucracy
because the value is all there.
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#146 Eric

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Posted 28 April 2004 - 07:04 PM

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast SA %

2004 Apr 5.82
2004 May 5.57
2004 Jun 5.39
2004 Jul 5.35
2004 Aug 5.42
2004 Sep 4.82

Standard Deviation 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Correlation Coefficient 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95
Updated Wednesday, April 14, 2004

Current Economic Indicators

April 27, 2004 (Close of Day)

Inflation 1.69
GDP Growth 4.08
Unemployment 5.70
Gold 396.25
Oil 37.49
Prime 4.00
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#147 BWII

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Posted 28 April 2004 - 07:17 PM

I work with a textile manufacturing company. We put an add in the paper for sewing machine operators. Over 100 people in 2 days have called and the phones are ringing non-stop. Most all say they worked for 15 years or more in sewing but were laid off due to business moving to Mexico or Guatemala.

I believe 11% sounds right. Many of my friends are looking as we speak. They are happy to work at low paying, no-frills places but they do not seem to be hiring.

Our business started to really hurt immediately after the invasion of Iraq. It has not picked up enough to hire all of the highly skilled people we have interviewed.

Not to mention people who are not in "the system."
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#148 Eric

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Posted 28 April 2004 - 07:29 PM

There are no statistics to back up the charge that US unemployment is at 11%. The posts claiming that are very old but I did not forget them when I originally read them and just posted the most recent unemployment stats to let in a little reality. I guess if I was unemployed I'd feel that unemployment seemed like it was at 100%, but that's not how it works. The economy is good, and getting better.
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#149 Bader

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Posted 29 April 2004 - 12:57 AM

Howdy Eric,
I was surprised to see this thread was still alive after 12 months.
I dont pay to much attention to what is published for the public.
The definitions and stats are interpreted to suit the image of
economics, its good politics, like moving the goalpost to ensure one stays in front. It serves to hide the fact that they cant solve the old deepseated problems.
After countries start dumping US bonds because the US debt is too inflated is when the ship will turn over in the water. It seems to survive inspite of the bad indicaters.
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#150 Eric

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Posted 29 April 2004 - 05:47 PM

Well then, speaking from direct empirical evidence that I have observed with my own eyeballs and eardrums and social interaction here in the hallowed state of South Carolina, land of the fighting game cocks and last bastion of the barroom mini bottle, I literally know no one who is unemployed, and wants to work. Well, I take that back, we recently had a lady where I work get terminated due to her 'increasingly strange and erratic behavior', which was odd, and I assume she hasn't been rehired yet. Not sure yet what that was all about, but I wish her well. And I have known people who have been unemployed, but they eventually got other jobs. One guy was a computer tech and he was unemployed over a year but he also turned down some jobs (no doubt not telling the Unemployment Bureau, or else he would have lost his benefits). Now he drives a truck. I just don't see all of these unemployed people that some people are always discussing. But understand this too, I have moved around with the job market. I heard a lady on the radio the other day call in to a talk show and complain that she had 2 Masters degrees in counseling and Internet Technology, but she felt she was underemployed. Well she was calling from an area that has high unemployment, and the radio DJ asked her if she was going to move to another part of the country. Well, no she wasn't, she said. It hadn't even crossed her mind. I mean, come on people, this is not paradise. You can't expect everything to come to you. If you lose your job you might need to learn a new skill set, or move to another part of the county, or make less money, or all of the above. It ain't no Shangri-la but it's certainly not a bad place to live, from what I can see. You just have to adjust to what life throws at ya.
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#151 Bader

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Posted 29 April 2004 - 06:02 PM

Thats a pretty good summary, Eric. I think I recall you saying similar previously about there seeming to be little unemplyment in your region. Good for your area, it isnt the same everywhere.
No doubt many have moved or been retrained, its happening all over the developed world.
Must be hard when one spouse has a good job where they are or the school where the kids go is very good and the kids doing well, but that is life. There will be adjustments one way or another.
The dropping of interest rates through last year would have
made a huge impact as designed to do. I would expect things would have been quite serious by now if they hadnt by the
extent they kept stepping down.
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#152 pacific

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Posted 04 December 2005 - 02:06 PM

:wonder:
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#153 Bader

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Posted 05 December 2005 - 05:37 AM

Howdy Pacifc,

I didnt quite catch what you said.

How is employment underground. I guess you people have under-employment and that after all is a better word than unemployment.

According to the Trumpet Report there are 1.2 million legal and illegal immigrants enter the US every year. Both the northern and southern borders are leaking like sieves. It was estimated in 2002 that the illegal immigrants drag on the economy was in the region of $10 B. Has to be factored into the employment issues, no tax paying, social problems and crimes and prison costs. The French social unrest and arson is directly related to the immigration ploicy and problems and is likely only a matter of time and a neo-Watts will break out in the US.
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#154 pacific

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 05:39 PM

Originally posted by Bader
Howdy Pacific,

I didn't quite catch what you said.

How is employment underground.
I guess you people have under-employment and that after all is a better word than unemployment.

According to the Trumpet Report there are 1.2 million legal and illegal immigrants enter the US every year. Both the northern and southern borders are leaking like sieves. It was estimated in 2002 that the illegal immigrants drag on the economy was in the region of $10 B. Has to be factored into the employment issues, no tax paying, social problems and crimes and prison costs. The French social unrest and arson is directly related to the immigration policy and problems and is likely only a matter of time and a neo-Watts will break out in the US.



uhm

Has to be factored into the employment issues, no tax paying, social problems and crimes and prison costs.

what's different from some sectarian extreme right wing in some place in the U.S.A.?
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#155 pacific

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 05:45 PM

EIR's Level of Real Unemployment, March 2003

Official Unemployment 8.45 million

"Want a Job Now" 4.76 million

"Part-Time for Economic Reasons 4.70 million

Total Unemployment 17.91 million

Unemployment Rate 11.9%

Of the 8.45 million whom the BLS reports as being officially unemployed, 1.90 million, or 22%, have been unemployed for more than six months.

The strains on their family income are greatly increasing.



It's related to march 2003 and it's related to european methods of count.

The strains on their family income are greatly increasing.


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#156 pilot

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Posted 06 December 2005 - 05:47 PM

Don't move to the US as unemployment rate is actually 35%

It's just terrible here, just terrible ...get it?

:D
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#157 Bader

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Posted 07 December 2005 - 12:14 AM

Howdy Pacific,

I would ask then what's the same, I would have thought that the extreme r/wing you referred to would be more concerned about the items you repeated rather than being much the same, as you seem to infur.

The situation appears to me to be far worse in the US potentially than as in France right now. We saw what happened in New Orleans when the systems broke down and no law and order.
FEMA boldly notified everyone, brainlessly, that the first four days after a catastrophe that there is not going to be any security (exept those who own firearms). There will be plenty of employment in rape and plunder then.

Pressure you mention of families is the same over the developed world. The difference between the top paid and the average is many times more than previously just a few decades ago. A 'depression' comes to increasing percentage of the population rather than to the whole economy at one time.
'Poverty in the midst of planty'

Pilot sounds like he is in denial. The earth is flat where he lives so it must be flat.
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#158 pacific

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Posted 03 January 2006 - 06:12 PM

Originally posted by pacific
It's related to march 2003 and it's related to european methods of count.


The strains on their family income are greatly increasing.


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#159 Bader

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Posted 14 January 2006 - 07:02 PM

The term "unemployment" is long obsolete.

Just as the definition and the basis of calculating inflation has changed and likewise the same for unemployment, to suit outdated economics.

A more appropriate word would be 'under-employment'.

But even this is misleading because the simple fact is that even in the developed world many people are working longer to try and hold ground which means that incomes are inadiquate.

So the total problem is that people are not able to aquire the means necessary to maintain a standard of living equal to the technological status of the society. ( hense increasing debt and deficits allowing banking policy to rule over govt policy)

Obviously the problem lies in the intangible sector- the bookkeeping/money/economic systems which is why the area of money and banking has been shrouded in mystery.

The on going dollar crisis has forced at long last, as designed, the US to break down its barriers for open market trade. More US businesses will go to the wall and more and more jobs will go to the legal and illegal immigrants bringing down their standard of living.

There is an old outdated philosophical notion behind this 'employment' mania. It is that if a man doesnt work he shouldnt eat. Seemed rather natural in more primative times but hardly necessary in an age where we are designing and inventing ways to save work. Rather double minded. However it suits the elite because that means as time goes on many are merely underpaid/slavelabour.

As technology advances everyone should be working less hours over time. Back in history civilisations of high standards in culture, art etc came from the fruit of slavery, which gave people leisure time to design, invent, explore, compose. We have a far greater slave in technology but the reverse is happening because we are alseep and kept ina time warp by those smarter.
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