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The Bear Awakes under the US threat: A Jane's analysis


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#1 Uragan

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 07:57 PM

Russia's new 'Warsaw Pact'
08.05.2003 [20:25]


While Washington is pre-occupied with Iraq, the Middle East and North Korea, Russia has pushed ahead with moves to re-integrate the CIS and thereby re-gain some of the regional influence it lost to the USA after 11 September. JID sources have predicted that Russia will continue to gain ground throughout the CIS. The only exception will be Uzbekistan which has developed a bilateral security relationship with the USA.

As the record of CIS states on democratisation has continued to deteriorate, Russia has stepped in to support authoritarian regimes and their leaders in the face of Western criticism over stalled reform and the worsening human rights situation. To Russia, geopolitics is the over-riding issue and the type of regime that is in power in CIS member states is effectively irrelevant. In the aftermath of the ousting of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq many authoritarian leaders in Central Asia feel threatened by the rise of US unilaterism and are turning back to Russia in search of security guarantees.

CIS states, such as Armenia, Ukraine and Belarus have also agreed to Russian demands for strategic assets to be exchanged for debts owed to Russia for energy. This is the price they are willing to pay for Russia's diplomatic support for their embattled leaders. The Kremlin is willing to offer support to the leaders of Armenia (Robert Kocharian), Ukraine (Leonid Kuchma) and Belarus (Aleksandr Lukashenka) - all under varying degrees of pressure from the West.

Moscow's lifeline for Kuchma

In January, Ukraine's president Kuchma became head of the CIS Council of Heads of State, the first time a non-Russian has headed this body, in a move interpreted as a public way for Russia to show its solidarity with Kuchma whose reputation in the West hit an all-time low in September 2002 after he was accused by Washington of authorising the sale of Kolchuga radars to Iraq during a meeting held in July 2000. In return for Russian support for Kuchma, Moscow is actively seeking to extend the 20-year lease of Sevastopol naval bases for the Black Sea Fleet, signed in 1997, to 99 years.

At a recent meeting held in Tajikistan the six members of the CIS Collective Security Organisation (CIS CSO) - Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan -agreed to establish a Warsaw Pact-style rapid reaction force. This step had been a key objective for Russia since the creation of the CIS CSO in 1992, which is intended to combat terrorism, drug trafficking and threats to the security of member states.

In reality, the CIS CSO (known as the Collective Security Treaty until 2001), proved ineffectual. Belarus preferred to co-operate with Russia bilaterally through the Russian-Belarusian union. There are Russian peacekeeping units in Tajikistan and Armenia already has a bilateral military treaty with Moscow. In addition, Belarus and Armenia were not interested in other regions of the CIS. The former focused on NATO enlargement to its western border, while the latter has been pre-occupied with its conflict with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh and the role of Turkey, a close Azeri ally. Only Russia regards the entire CIS as a zone of its security interests and for Moscow the CIS - the 'near abroad' - is more important than other regions or countries of the world, including its relations with the USA.

The new CIS CSO military organisation will, for the first time, have a joint general staff, the composition and financing of which has now been agreed. As with all CIS organisations, the new CIS CSO will be headed by a Russian, Nikolai Bordyuzha, a former secretary of the Russian Security Council.

Vladimir Mikhailov, the Russian air force commander-in-chief heads the CIS air defence co-ordination committee. The CIS Anti-Terrorist Centre, established in June 2000, is headed by Major General Boris Melnikov, who served in the KGB from 1975-91 and was the first deputy head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) department responsible for the "protection of constitutional order and the struggle against terrorism".

The doctrine of the new CIS CSO military structure is also modelled on that of the Warsaw Pact. Belarusian president Lukashenka has openly claimed the new organisation was set up as a direct response to US and British military intervention in Iraq without explicit UN Security Council authorisation.

Russia has also actively worked bilaterally with members of the CIS CSO and with non-members of the CIS, such as Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Although these three states are not members of the CIS CSO they are members of two other CIS military and security structures, the Air Defence Agreement and Anti-Terrorism Centre. In addition, military officers from Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan regularly attend CIS CSO military exercises as observers.

Active in Armenia

In January, Armenian president Kocherian signed a military-technical co-operation agreement with Russia, as well as economic agreements. Kocherian described Russia's military bases in his country as a "strong stabilising factor" in its relations with Turkey. In March, Moscow backed the re-election of Kocherian in an election that the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe described as having not being conducted in a "free and fair" manner. In 1997, Russia and Armenia signed a wide embracing treaty in which they agreed to provide mutual assistance in the event of a military threat to either side. Russian border guards patrol Armenia's borders with Iran and Turkey.

Russia has also successfully courted CIS member state Turkmenistan, a neutral country which is therefore not a member of the CIS CSO. Russian Security Council secretary Vladimir Rushailo visited Turkmenistan in January and offered Russia's support to the Turkmen regime and its 'President for Life' Saparmurat Niyazov. Niyazov is seeking Russian support in dealing with his political opposition which he accused of trying to assassinate him in November 2002. In return, Turkmenistan has agreed to become more conciliatory in its insistence on the division of the Caspian Sea into national sectors, a demand that Russia and Iran have long opposed during the continuing negotiations. In April, Russia and Turkmenistan signed two agreements on security and energy exports. As a concession Russia agreed to end the 1993 dual citizenship treaty with Turkmenistan.

The new Turkmen-Russian security agreement foresees an increased Russian presence in Turkmenistan, a country that borders Afghanistan and Iran. After the signing of the agreements, Russian president Vladimir Putin stated that they will "make our efforts to counter outside threats more systematic and efficient".

Russia has made a significant effort to re-assert its influence in Kyrgyzstan where its president, Askar Akayev, also feels increasingly embattled by his political opposition and is therefore seeking Russian support. A CIS air-rapid deployment force will be stationed in the country from June.

Closer ties with Russia will allow Akayev to crack down on anti-government protestors against whom he has threatened "drastic measures".

Specialist counterterrorism troops will be deployed at the new base for future operations. They could be sucked into a civil war if Kyrgyzstan was to go the way of neighbouring Tajikistan where Russian forces supported the government against Islamic guerrillas. In Kyrgyzstan the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which was backed by the Taliban regime, was active for a while and the Kyrgyz armed forces proved inept at dealing with the problem. Moscow's troops can be expected to take a more robust line with any rebels - or political opponents of its allies.

(In general I agree with this article, except for the noted demonization of the non-US alligned nations)
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#2 Uragan

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 09:01 PM

Actually the US intelligence organizations are Russia's top enemies.
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#3 vigorous

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 09:19 PM

Uragan;

You got that right about the intelligence agencies.
But guess what? They got a right-winger angry at
them. A religious right-winger at that. Imagine you're
the host of an all-Russia business conference; been
going on for years. You have all these special, trusted
Russian buddies you've been working for for years and
the bastards in the so-called (paranoid) "intelligence"
services actively work to keep them out of your conference?

Impagine that! The insult!

Check it out here: The FBI: Slamming The Door On Important Russian Friends

Since I am Canadian, I watch a lot of movies. These movies
capture accurately the characters of the people they intend
to depict. Quite often American movies ridicule 'security'
people. I suppose it is the same everywhere.

Ashcroft will pay for this.
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#4 Guest__*

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 09:21 PM

IS that a a joke bush and poodle blair nominated for Nobel prize forpeaace ?
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#5 Guest__*

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 10:38 PM

You are right Gandalf .No wonder I live in a small town and feel disconnected to the world. Maybe I should ditch this pc and not know how phucked up this all is. This nomination for peace price is so illogical for my logical mind that I wonder if these people are so phucked up and know deep down inside that they are or they have no conscience at all!
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#6 Rickk

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Posted 08 May 2003 - 11:54 PM

CHORNYVOLK

Not to be too blunt but you do realize that the Russian military is the laughing stock of the world right now don't you? Any army or group unfortunate enough to be using Russian military equipment has met a quick defeat in battle. Any country silly enough to trust Russian military advisors have been met with a quickly defeated air defence system, followed quickly by a loss of their airspace and inevitable defeat on the ground.
Russian tanks are destroyed before their crews know they are being engaged. Artillary units refuse to provide support because doing so means giving away location and instant death. American air power is what the British Royal Navy was in the 19th century. unchallenged and so far and above any other airforce that enemy pilots hardly bother getting into their cockpits. Doing so is suicide.
This site seems to be a place for delusional Russians to hang out and talk about the glory days of the Soviet Empire. Too bitter to see that the rest of the world has long ago seen through the smoke screen that was the big bad bear and found out that it was nothing but a mal-nourished goat.


-Rick
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#7 Baton Rouge

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:06 AM

Does RicKKK sound familiar, or is it a reclyced voice from a broken record or what?.:D

Howdie RicKiKiKi
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#8 vigorous

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:40 AM

Thank you for your opinion, Rickk.

Now piss off.
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#9 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:50 AM

Just a few hours ago, two russian navy bombers tu-145, the bears or the subs killers, tested nato defenses over atlantic biggest rls. Two F-15 were send to intersept them, but were way too late and russian bombers turned away back home. Just for somebody like RiKKK, so you will not be sleeping and be very afraid, very. Russia is not Iraq, stupid.

Read in tomorow news.
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#10 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:55 AM

I hope somebody like diposable will ever move on russia. In the matter of days, the former conscripts will make a 25 million highly trained russian army with smarts and who are willing to kill anybody who would ever threaten our land and our freedom. Just bring it on and we will end up in your town soon, raping your women.
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#11 vigorous

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:58 AM

OK. Next time your guys need a ride home from the ISS,
call a cab, you ungrateful swine.
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#12 Guest__*

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 12:59 AM

stl,

>>"Just bring it on and we will end up in your town soon, raping your women."

What no dinner first?

;)
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#13 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:07 AM

Never underestimate Russian army. Whatever. America lost two shuttles, so what.

History will tell us, who will survive and stand at the end. If US will ever challenge Russia, you know the odds. 2-200 for Russia. It's better, if you start to help us now, we will win always. That's the Russian spirit. We could lose the war, but we never lose the land and our freedom. Just ask Germans, for 4 years occupation of Russia, we responded with our 40. Would you like to be occupied too??????? Like for the next 400 years. With our multi war heads on a rocket. Up to 45 on one carrier. Your shield will never help. They will separate over the Northern ocean and a rain of war heads will stream down on your heads. You will not even able to say wha......boom. Everything is pulverised.
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#14 vigorous

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:07 AM

You lowdown, ungrateful, niggardly twit.

I bet you don't tip cabbies.
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#15 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:09 AM

Plsek.

You will be choosen by the russian army a governer of your state. We need someone loyal. :)
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#16 vigorous

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:16 AM

I hear the Russians have a torpedo that goes
quite fast in an envelope of gas. So much
for defence systems.
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#17 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:17 AM

You are a funny guy. Every russian news paper was feeding this BS. So what. Yours are not better. Are you a spook or something. I can see a spook. Where are you in the cold or a cushy job in L. V.??????
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#18 Guest__*

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:22 AM

disposable - aka American Guy

>>Most would take that as insult....

Why would I be insulted? I would get to be governor! :D

Look, I'm in a good mood tonight. Why argue and fight?
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#19 Rickk

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:23 AM

Nice retort "vigorous". Hope you didn't have to break open the Thesaurus for that one.


STL? Is that an abbreviation for "Stalin" or did you just forget the rest of the letters?

STL you are either delusional or drunk...probably both.

We could debate many things on this board, the failures of communism, the dominance of he world by Capitalist countries...Why Russian women have enough hair on their backs to weave an Indian blanket...whatever.
One thing we can not debate however is Russian military prowess.
Are you still drowning the nights away in a bottle of cheap potato vodka, reminiscing about the good ol' days and the defense of Stalingrad? Only 3/4's of the population died but what the heck? Russian military victories are slim throughout history, you need to take them when you can get them.

Here is some thoughts to keep you warm at night...

It took the United States about two weeks to defeat and subdue an Afghanistan that had sent the red army home with their tails between their legs. What stories I wonder, do you and your fellow village-idiots tell each other to explain this?
Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher brought the Soviet Empire down with words and the bluff of Star Wars.
The United States defeated Iraq(again) inside of three weeks while suffering less casualties than the Russian opera goers that the bungling Russian military gassed to death in a vain attempt at rescue.
What excuses will you and the rest of your little bitter crowd use when Iraq and Afghanistan become prosperous democracies while most Russians are still living in third world conditions?

I leave you now to go back to your delusions.
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#20 stl

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 01:25 AM

Hey Guy. We know each other here well to take a joke. So, I do not think Plsek got offended for a moment, if she did, I can apologise to her.
We just do not like trolls here, who come on this board with one only reason. To troll.

Please be normal and build bridges with us, between our countries. There is enough trolls in this world. I do not come and insult people on American boards, why do you think you can come and insult the Russian people here. I do not understand the American civility, period. We work hard to attract Russian posters, who come here and read this commie crap. Who are left are bitter and we are very apprehensive. Enough already. Russia is like you, we are fighting to be better, if you do not want to help, please leave.
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