By Nabi Abdullaev
Staff Writer Editor's note: This is the first of two stories about Moscow's changing ethnic composition.
If existing demographic trends continue, in two generations most Muscovites will have olive skin, dark hair and extended families in the Caucasus and Central Asia, according to a leading institute.
The main reasons for the imminent change to the city's face is that ethnic Russians do not have as many babies as their darker-skinned counterparts and, to lesser extent, the growing number of non-Slavic migrants moving to Moscow, they say.
According to the calculations of the Institute of General Genetics, the ratio between Moscow residents who traditionally practice Christianity and those who profess Islam was 37 to 1 in 1994. In 2000, the ratio had narrowed to 32 to 1, and by 2025 it is expected to shrink to 6 to 1.
The institute counted the large non-Slavic Armenian and Georgian communities as Christian.
The demographic shift is largely due to the reluctance of Slavic women to have large families, said Yelena Pobedonostseva, a researcher at the Institute of General Genetics.
"In 1999, for example, there were only 1.24 births per 100 female Russian Muscovites and 1.36 for Ukrainian Muscovites, while Azeri Muscovites had 5.71," she said.
She said a population group must have a birth rate of no less than 2.2 to avoid extinction.
The city's champions in reproduction were Chechens, with more than 9 births per 100 women a year, and Ingush natives, with about 8 births, Pobedonostseva said.
"For women living in a single city, the difference in birth rates among ethnic groups is explained only by the women's age, health and desire to have children," she said.
Although already low, the birth rate among Slavic women is steadily declining, according to the institute's figures. While it was 1.45 per 100 women in 1994, the rate was closer to 1.7 in 1950 and 2.7 in 1925.
Ethnic Russians accounted for 86.4 percent of all babies born in Moscow in 1994, but that share shrunk to 72.5 percent in 1999. In the meantime, Azeri births jumped from 0.9 percent to 1.3 percent, Chechen births grew from 0.11 percent to 0.46 percent, and Ingush births rose from 0.08 percent to 0.15 percent.
"The actual increase in the non-Slavic population of Moscow may not seem large compared to the total number of Russians in the city, but if the tendency continues, the face of the city will eventually change," Pobedonostseva said.
The number of migrants who register as permanent residents is paltry compared to the overall city's population, but their influx is also helping dilute the Slavic population, said Valery Stepanov, an expert from the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology.
According to the 1989 census, ethnic Russians accounted for 90 percent of the Moscow population, while Armenians and Chechens each held about 0.5 percent, he said.
Most of the tens of thousands of migrants who moved to the capital in the 1990s were ethnic Russians -- by some counts as many as two-thirds, Stepanov said. Armenians and Chechens each accounted for 3 percent, much more than their representation in the 1989 census.
"If this continues, in 50 years every third Muscovite will have a non-Slavic appearance," Stepanov said.
The growing number of migrants has also led to an increase in the number of interethnic marriages. The parents' offspring usually take the dominant genes of the Caucasian natives.
From the 1950s to the 1980s, every sixth marriage in Moscow was interethnic, according to Russian media reports. By 1995, interethnic marriages had grown to 22 percent of all marriages, and they currently are between 30 percent to 40 percent.
City officials said they could not provide figures on marriages, saying they had stopped collecting such information after then-President Boris Yeltsin abolished any reference to ethnicity from new Russian passports in 1997. Also, the ethnicity of brides and grooms is no longer registered.
Ethnicity experts agreed that some marriages were on paper only -- migrants who tie the knot to get Moscow residency permits but do not live with their spouses. But in many cases, they said, Russian women are drawn by the self-confidence and financial security that a number of Caucasus men offer.
"Just watch any talk show and you'll learn what a Russian woman wants from her darling: He must be financially successful, not drink too much and never act like a loser," said Vladimir Pribylovsky, an analyst from the Panorama think tank. "Migrants from the Caucasus match these standards better than average Russians."
While less than 2 percent of all marriages involve Slavic husbands and Caucasus wives -- a percentage that has remained stable for decades -- the number of unions between Slavic women and Caucasus men has skyrocketed, according to the Institute of General Genetics.
Weddings with Armenian grooms tripled to 12 percent of the total between 1980 to 1995, followed by Georgians with 8.7 percent and Azeris with 6.8 percent, the institute said. Ethnic groups from Russia's northern Caucasus region have more than quadrupled to 4.4 percent.
However, about 90 percent of the children born in these marriages identify themselves as Slavic Russians, Stepanov said.
"The perception of ethnicity in Russia is changing from a reference in the passport toward ethnic self-identification," he said. "For non-Slavic people living in Moscow, where the informational and cultural environment is embedded in the Russian language, integration will inevitably mean a change of their ethnic identity."
Moscow's Face Is Getting Darker
Posted 29 January 2003 - 01:02 PM
Posted 29 January 2003 - 08:31 PM
And Black/Caucasian bloke look fairly good.
But, I wouldn't recommend it, not in this day and age, lots of family's don't fully accept mixed marrages, is it fair to
put children in a situation of war and not wanted by either side when society acts as a extended family?
Posted 29 January 2003 - 10:43 PM
Let's look at couple of figures (I took them from different sites on internet;)
In the United States, 300 to 400 people die of acute alcohol poisoning each year. The Russian figure over 30,000.
I assume many of those who drink do have children. What I saw back in the Soviet Union, Russian women were very much expected to pull their load through, with children upbringing, while their husbands and boyfriends were too busy drinking with their buddies.
Soviet system was set in such a way, though, that it was helping women to get their job done- free daycares, cheap food, efficient public transportation, garanteed jobs and so on. Even then the birth rate was declining, since it was not an easy task.
In today's Russia, in current economic conditions, why would any everage Russian woman, knowing the hardship of raising a child would be interested in having what's unaffordable in any sense of this word?
The culture of Caucasian family, on another hand, even of Christian background always reflected the values, traditional for Islam, (or Judaism?) Women were expected to have no voice, but to be taken care of and to be provided with plenty of material things.
If Chechens (or whoever from Caucasin Mountains) are moving in Moscow, they are moving for a reason of trade, financial schemes or whatever, but they apparently do have means. If that's the case, they provide their women and are able to afford more children.
Posted 30 January 2003 - 12:53 AM
I dont believe it is the race that determines racism, but individuals. Individuals who expose their beliefs and the followers that agree.
"Live and let live", or "live and let die (sorry G's & R' s for the plagerism)" but who are we...no single pure strand that is for sure...we are all racially mixed..
my point being is it really a problem for races to mix when it is the inherent self who determines who is good and who is bad?
Posted 30 January 2003 - 01:03 AM
and spiritual characteristics. To destroy the various
racial/ethnic groups by miscegenating them into
one race would destroy forever the genetic heritage
that makes these differences possible.
The EVIL ANTI-CHRIST JEW/NWO wants to destroy the
various races and cultures by miscegenating the races
into one. It also wants to destroy nation, religion and family.
Why ?! Because then each raceless, cultureless, nationless,
GODless miscegenated individual would be but a cog in the
wheel of the JEW/NWO... a SLAVE with no loyalty except to
the JEW/NWO STATE !!
Posted 30 January 2003 - 01:07 AM
Never mind, once the NWO gets you in their sites you will think like the rest of us......just jokin',
but I do agree this plan is definately out to produce the drone's that will will turn our economic wheel while Georgy Bush hopes he can rule over it all!
Should we not start a coallition against the US and there weapons of MD or just against those who produce the most of them? (oh wait, that IS the USA)
Posted 30 January 2003 - 01:25 AM
Remarks at a Fundraising Dinner for
Gubernatorial Candidate Pete Wilson
in San Francisco, California
February 28, 1990
"Time and again in this century, the political map of
the world was transformed. And in each instance, a new
world order came about through the advent of a new
tyrant or the outbreak of a bloody global war..."
NOTE the DATE on this President Bush
Address Before a Joint Session of the Congress on the
Persian Gulf Crisis and the Federal Budget Deficit
September 11, 1990
"We stand today at a unique and extraordinary moment.
The crisis in the Persian Gulf, as grave as it is,
also offers a rare opportunity to move toward an
historic period of cooperation. Out of these troubled
times, our fifth objective -- a new world order -- can
emerge: a new era -- freer from the threat of terror,
stronger in the pursuit of justice, and more secure in
the quest for peace. An era in which the nations of
the world, East and West, North and South, can prosper
and live in harmony. A hundred generations have
searched for this elusive path to peace, while a
thousand wars raged across the span of human endeavor.
Today that new world is struggling to be born, a world
quite different from the one we've known. A world
where the rule of law supplants the rule of the
jungle. A world in which nations recognize the shared
responsibility for freedom and justice. A world where
the strong respect the rights of the weak. This is the
vision that I shared with President Gorbachev in
Helsinki. He and other leaders from Europe, the Gulf,
and around the world understand that how we manage
this crisis today could shape the future for
generations to come
Posted 30 January 2003 - 01:41 AM
even more so,,...China, India and DUMA.....a coaltion...what is going on here?
CHina Population 1.25Billion.
India Pop. 1.0 Billion
Collective armed forces around the 5million troops and Nukes, about the same as the US?
Good goin Putin, he knows that the allies are not always the Anglo's. Jews, or the Americans. (Not Australia, thou, we ar not big enough!!)
0 user(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users